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Language: en
All right, everybody. Welcome back to
All right, everybody. Welcome back to
the number one podcast in the world.
the number one podcast in the world.
Freeberg's out saving the world,
Freeberg's out saving the world,
creating new potatoes or I don't know,
creating new potatoes or I don't know,
quinoa, maybe some Brussels sprouts. I'm
quinoa, maybe some Brussels sprouts. I'm
not sure what he's working on at this
not sure what he's working on at this
point. In his place, his personal
point. In his place, his personal
favorite bestie. He always says that
favorite bestie. He always says that
when I'm not here, I want Brad Gersonner
when I'm not here, I want Brad Gersonner
in the seat. Welcome back. We haven't
in the seat. Welcome back. We haven't
seen you on the pod since your shout out
seen you on the pod since your shout out
at the State of the Union. Take us
at the State of the Union. Take us
behind the scenes for a brief moment
behind the scenes for a brief moment
here, Brad, of what it's like to get a
here, Brad, of what it's like to get a
shout out from POTUS at the state of Did
shout out from POTUS at the state of Did
you know it was coming? Did you
you know it was coming? Did you
choreograph to this thing? Did you Did
choreograph to this thing? Did you Did
you choreograph that or was that more
you choreograph that or was that more
spontaneous?
>> I honestly had no idea it was coming.
>> I honestly had no idea it was coming.
>> And in fact, I I found out after the
>> And in fact, I I found out after the
fact that it wasn't in the speech and
fact that it wasn't in the speech and
the president added it to the speech.
the president added it to the speech.
So, I don't even think it was, you know,
So, I don't even think it was, you know,
few days ago few days before going to
few days ago few days before going to
happen. But we got an invite to the
happen. But we got an invite to the
State of the Union and you know, listen,
State of the Union and you know, listen,
it's an institution. And this has
it's an institution. And this has
happened every year for 250 years in the
happened every year for 250 years in the
country. I've never been. I thought I
country. I've never been. I thought I
did know he was going to talk about
did know he was going to talk about
Trump accounts. So I figured if I'm ever
Trump accounts. So I figured if I'm ever
going to go, that's the time to go. And
going to go, that's the time to go. And
I have to say, you know, I'm just a
I have to say, you know, I'm just a
sucker for Democratic institutions and
sucker for Democratic institutions and
Democratic traditions. It it was an
Democratic traditions. It it was an
extraordinary night. Set aside, you
extraordinary night. Set aside, you
know, the headlines about what Democrats
know, the headlines about what Democrats
did or Republicans did. Just the whether
did or Republicans did. Just the whether
it's a Democrat president or Republican
it's a Democrat president or Republican
president that this happens every year.
president that this happens every year.
You have to go report on the State of
You have to go report on the State of
the Union. So it was a it was a special
the Union. So it was a it was a special
night. did dinner ahead of time. We're
night. did dinner ahead of time. We're
in the chamber. The chamber, as you all
in the chamber. The chamber, as you all
know, is very small. And so, you know,
know, is very small. And so, you know,
just to your right was the first family
just to your right was the first family
and and Jared and Ivanka.
and and Jared and Ivanka.
And so, you know, we were there as to
And so, you know, we were there as to
observe like everybody else. And wow, it
observe like everybody else. And wow, it
was it was quite a moment. And
was it was quite a moment. And
>> I want to just say you did a great job
>> I want to just say you did a great job
because when you sent your heart out to
because when you sent your heart out to
all of America,
all of America,
>> I took it. I took it. I took it. I was
>> I took it. I took it. I took it. I was
like it out,
like it out,
>> but you kept it at the right angle.
>> but you kept it at the right angle.
>> Right. Right.
>> Right. Right.
>> You had just gone up a little bit extra
>> You had just gone up a little bit extra
and out.
>> Would have been no bueno.
>> Would have been no bueno.
>> Those would be some super racist Trump
>> Those would be some super racist Trump
accounts.
>> Keep your protractor and your ruler out
>> Keep your protractor and your ruler out
when you send your heart out. Okay.
when you send your heart out. Okay.
>> One final thing on it, Jason.
>> One final thing on it, Jason.
You know, we're signing up over a
You know, we're signing up over a
100,000 kids a day to these Trump
100,000 kids a day to these Trump
accounts. Fantastic. We have millions of
accounts. Fantastic. We have millions of
kids who've already claimed their
kids who've already claimed their
account. We have nearly 30 million kids
account. We have nearly 30 million kids
in America who are eligible for at least
in America who are eligible for at least
$250 if they just go claim their
$250 if they just go claim their
account. These things are going to go
account. These things are going to go
live on July 4th. And what it really
live on July 4th. And what it really
showed, I think, the country, it
showed, I think, the country, it
accelerated after the State of the Union
accelerated after the State of the Union
because the president, you know, really
because the president, you know, really
believes this is a way to get everybody
believes this is a way to get everybody
main street America into the game of
main street America into the game of
capitalism and get them all directly
capitalism and get them all directly
owning, you know, the great companies in
owning, you know, the great companies in
America. So, it meant a lot to me in
America. So, it meant a lot to me in
that regard that it highlights the
that regard that it highlights the
importance of the program. So, I was
importance of the program. So, I was
deeply grateful to the president for not
deeply grateful to the president for not
only making sure this happens, but the
only making sure this happens, but the
shout out is pretty cool.
shout out is pretty cool.
>> Good for you, bro.
>> Good for you, bro.
>> I have um an interesting uh idea for
>> I have um an interesting uh idea for
you. I'm sure it's come up already, but
you. I'm sure it's come up already, but
with this whole discussion of UBI,
with this whole discussion of UBI,
somebody said to me, "Oh, you know, I
somebody said to me, "Oh, you know, I
really like these Trump accounts your
really like these Trump accounts your
friends did the the Invest America
friends did the the Invest America
because it's like the start of UBI." And
because it's like the start of UBI." And
I was like, "Well, that's not exactly
I was like, "Well, that's not exactly
the intention, but I get it." And with
the intention, but I get it." And with
wealth disparity going on in the
wealth disparity going on in the
country, that has a lot of people
country, that has a lot of people
concerned. What if there was a giving
concerned. What if there was a giving
pledge around equities and people could
pledge around equities and people could
opt into it? They don't have to, but if
opt into it? They don't have to, but if
somebody like, I don't know, Larry and
somebody like, I don't know, Larry and
Sergey or Zuckerberg said, I want to
Sergey or Zuckerberg said, I want to
pledge 5% of my shares to go into kids
pledge 5% of my shares to go into kids
accounts over the next 20 years. What an
accounts over the next 20 years. What an
amazing, beautiful thing that could be.
amazing, beautiful thing that could be.
And it would be incredibly material to
And it would be incredibly material to
get whatever it is, a tenth of a share,
get whatever it is, a tenth of a share,
a hundredth of a share, a thousandth of
a hundredth of a share, a thousandth of
a share of whatever company. Has that
a share of whatever company. Has that
come up yet as an idea? I'm sure it's
come up yet as an idea? I'm sure it's
obvious, right?
obvious, right?
It's come up. Stay tuned. But yes, we're
It's come up. Stay tuned. But yes, we're
going to have some banger announcements
going to have some banger announcements
as we head toward July 4th.
as we head toward July 4th.
>> All right, let's talk about the war in
>> All right, let's talk about the war in
Iran. Obviously, there are much more
Iran. Obviously, there are much more
important issues than financial ones.
important issues than financial ones.
Life, death, the freedom of the people
Life, death, the freedom of the people
of Iran, but we're uniquely qualified, I
of Iran, but we're uniquely qualified, I
think, to talk about the economic
think, to talk about the economic
fallout, second order effects, first
fallout, second order effects, first
order effects. And there has been
order effects. And there has been
massive volatility over the last five
massive volatility over the last five
trading days. Just talking about Brent
trading days. Just talking about Brent
crude oil and we'll we'll key the
crude oil and we'll we'll key the
discussion off of that type of oil. It
discussion off of that type of oil. It
spiked to $84 on Friday. That was day
spiked to $84 on Friday. That was day
seven of the war, 119 on Monday, day 10
seven of the war, 119 on Monday, day 10
dropped back down to 84. Jump backed up
dropped back down to 84. Jump backed up
to 100 after three commercial ships were
to 100 after three commercial ships were
hit in the straight on Wednesday. Those
hit in the straight on Wednesday. Those
ships, by the way, were not oil tankers.
ships, by the way, were not oil tankers.
Uh they were carrying cargo. They were
Uh they were carrying cargo. They were
flagged as Thai Japanese and Marshall
flagged as Thai Japanese and Marshall
Islands. Brent crude currently at 99
Islands. Brent crude currently at 99
when we're taping this. It'll be at
when we're taping this. It'll be at
something different by the time you
something different by the time you
listen to the pod, I'm sure. But it's uh
listen to the pod, I'm sure. But it's uh
quite a spike. And here's a second
quite a spike. And here's a second
chart. This shows you the spikes over
chart. This shows you the spikes over
time. I was old enough to remember the
time. I was old enough to remember the
oil shock of 1978. Uh we had to like get
oil shock of 1978. Uh we had to like get
in line at the gas station based on your
in line at the gas station based on your
license plate number and uh you had to
license plate number and uh you had to
wait an hour or two to get gas. Gulf War
wait an hour or two to get gas. Gulf War
obviously it hit $100 in 20 $26.
obviously it hit $100 in 20 $26.
2008 we hit kind of a peak moment. $216
2008 we hit kind of a peak moment. $216
in today's dollars. That was the peak
in today's dollars. That was the peak
oil discussion. Demand from China went
oil discussion. Demand from China went
off the charts. When Russia invaded
off the charts. When Russia invaded
Ukraine, we hit 115, which would be 133
Ukraine, we hit 115, which would be 133
in today's dollars. So, this is uh not
in today's dollars. So, this is uh not
new, but it is significant. And breaking
new, but it is significant. And breaking
news today, Iran's new Supreme Leader
news today, Iran's new Supreme Leader
Mosh Taba says he's keeping the straight
Mosh Taba says he's keeping the straight
closed as a tool to pressure the enemy.
closed as a tool to pressure the enemy.
Wall Street Journal on Thursday quoted a
Wall Street Journal on Thursday quoted a
senior fellow at the Middle East
senior fellow at the Middle East
Institute saying that reopening the
Institute saying that reopening the
strait will require ground troops. Poly
strait will require ground troops. Poly
market 27% chance that US forces enter
market 27% chance that US forces enter
Iran by the end of March and 57% by the
Iran by the end of March and 57% by the
end of the year. So the sharps over at
end of the year. So the sharps over at
poly market believe we will have boots
poly market believe we will have boots
on the ground. Let me stop there. Brad,
on the ground. Let me stop there. Brad,
your thoughts on what happens when oil
your thoughts on what happens when oil
hits this kind of number and we have
hits this kind of number and we have
this uncertainty of, hey, this could
this uncertainty of, hey, this could
last, you know, two more weeks or it
last, you know, two more weeks or it
could last 6 months, it could last a
could last 6 months, it could last a
year. Nobody seems to know and how it
year. Nobody seems to know and how it
resolves. We just had a really
resolves. We just had a really
interesting talk with Graham Allison.
interesting talk with Graham Allison.
Um, how it resolves is also a major
Um, how it resolves is also a major
unknown. Your thoughts?
unknown. Your thoughts?
>> Right. So first is obviously there are
>> Right. So first is obviously there are
huge direct costs as oil prices go up
huge direct costs as oil prices go up
right oil is a component of a lot of
right oil is a component of a lot of
consumer you know and enterprise
consumer you know and enterprise
products and it also hurts consumer
products and it also hurts consumer
confidence enterprise confidence Goldman
confidence enterprise confidence Goldman
Sachs is out today with some analysis
Sachs is out today with some analysis
where they updated kind of the economic
where they updated kind of the economic
knock-on effects right so they raised
knock-on effects right so they raised
their PCE inflation forecast from 2.1 to
their PCE inflation forecast from 2.1 to
2.9 right for the year so that's a huge
2.9 right for the year so that's a huge
jump right in terms of their expected
jump right in terms of their expected
you know PC inflation core PCE which
you know PC inflation core PCE which
excludes oil, okay, is they forecasted
excludes oil, okay, is they forecasted
up uh from 2.2 to 2.4. So they're saying
up uh from 2.2 to 2.4. So they're saying
even if you excluded the direct price of
even if you excluded the direct price of
oil, the knock-on effects is going to
oil, the knock-on effects is going to
cause a little more inflation. They
cause a little more inflation. They
lowered their GDP forecast by 30 basis
lowered their GDP forecast by 30 basis
points for the year. And they also
points for the year. And they also
expect higher unemployment as a result
expect higher unemployment as a result
of this for the year. All of that is
of this for the year. All of that is
weighing on the sentiment of the market.
weighing on the sentiment of the market.
Remember, just a few months ago, the S&P
Remember, just a few months ago, the S&P
peaked at 24 times. Now we're at 21
peaked at 24 times. Now we're at 21
times. But I think the market may be
times. But I think the market may be
getting it a little bit wrong. Right?
getting it a little bit wrong. Right?
The Trump doctrine, you know, I tweeted
The Trump doctrine, you know, I tweeted
about this last week. I think the Trump
about this last week. I think the Trump
doctrine is far more pragmatic than the
doctrine is far more pragmatic than the
neocon doctrine. Right? I think we I
neocon doctrine. Right? I think we I
think Trump has a very limited set of
think Trump has a very limited set of
goals. He wants to destroy and degrade
goals. He wants to destroy and degrade
threats to America's national security
threats to America's national security
interests. He doesn't want to spread
interests. He doesn't want to spread
democracy. So my suspicion is that these
democracy. So my suspicion is that these
impacts are shorter duration, but right
impacts are shorter duration, but right
now the market's having a little bit of
now the market's having a little bit of
post-traumatic stress flashbacks to
post-traumatic stress flashbacks to
Afghanistan and Iraq and wondering if we
Afghanistan and Iraq and wondering if we
might be wandering into a quagmire.
might be wandering into a quagmire.
>> All right. And just he may not um in
>> All right. And just he may not um in
terms of the doctrine, he has said he
terms of the doctrine, he has said he
wants to see uh the people rise up
wants to see uh the people rise up
there. So might be splitting hairs, but
there. So might be splitting hairs, but
I think uh he might actually be for
I think uh he might actually be for
regime change. He says he wants the
regime change. He says he wants the
regime to change
regime to change
>> being equal. I don't think he minds if
>> being equal. I don't think he minds if
the people bring it to themselves. The
the people bring it to themselves. The
question is whether the US is going to,
question is whether the US is going to,
you know, put boots on the ground and
you know, put boots on the ground and
try to spread misonian democracy like
try to spread misonian democracy like
like the Cheney doctrine was. And I
like the Cheney doctrine was. And I
think this is very different.
think this is very different.
>> Chimat, uh, your take on the economic
>> Chimat, uh, your take on the economic
impact and, you know, and any other uh,
impact and, you know, and any other uh,
things you'd like to add about the war
things you'd like to add about the war
in Iran?
in Iran?
I think the most important thing that I
I think the most important thing that I
saw this week was I think President
saw this week was I think President
Trump was asked about the war and he
Trump was asked about the war and he
said the war would be over very soon.
said the war would be over very soon.
What did the market do? The market
What did the market do? The market
literally took oil from 120 a barrel to
literally took oil from 120 a barrel to
90 a barrel
90 a barrel
almost in you know a nancond.
almost in you know a nancond.
I think that that sort of tells you what
I think that that sort of tells you what
everybody thinks. To the extent that the
everybody thinks. To the extent that the
market really didn't believe it, oil
market really didn't believe it, oil
would not have budged and if anything,
would not have budged and if anything,
it would have faded those comments and
it would have faded those comments and
you probably would have seen oil stay at