All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the all-in podcast. David Sacks couldn't make it this week, but we have the trio. David Freeberg is here, your Sultan of Science, Jim Polatia.
SpaceX filed confidentially to go public on April 1st, targeting a 1.75 trillion with the T valuation. When SpaceX goes public, if it's at that $1.75 trillion dollar valuation, so weird to say trillion dollar valuation for an IPO, they would be the eighth largest company in the world, right behind TSMC and Saudi Aramco. They're both worth $1.7. At the taping of this podcast, Tesla is number 10 with $1.37 trillion valuation.
What are the chances that Tesla after if this IPO goes well that Tesla and SpaceX could wind up being the same company? 99.999%.
Hey, if you were to combine those two, as many people are speculating, will happen at some point and you can buy the stock ticker E, that would be a $3.1 trillion company, and that would make them the fourth largest company ahead of Microsoft. They're aiming to raise Chomoth 75 billion, which would be by far the biggest raise ever in an IPO. Expected to go out in June.
SpaceX recently acquired X.AI for 250 billion. That includes X and Twitter and the XAI large language model AI company. Starlink, generating between 50 and 80% of SpaceX's revenue. We'll have all those details shortly. It'll be close to $20 billion a year according to reports. Launch of rockets is the other 40% of the business, 5 billion in 2024 according to reports. Total revenue 2025 15 to 16 billion with 8 billion in profit according to Reuters.
The most important positive thing that will happen from the IPO is a validated external mark-to-market valuation of SpaceX. And the market every day in real time gives you a valid mark-to-market assessment of the value. This allows you to put these two things together to minimize shareholder lawsuits.
This week's a pretty important milestone because we just launched Artemis 2 yesterday, which is man's returning to the moon. So, the United States shipped this rocket with four astronauts on board. They're going to do an orbit around the Earth, head to the moon, come back around, and come back to Earth in anticipation of landing on the moon in about 2 years.
The moon could end up being kind of the next industrial frontier for humanity. If you can get to the moon, the moon has an extraordinary abundance of material that we can mine, process, and manufacture into goods. And ultimately the cost to ship those goods back to the earth is zero.
It will cost less to move goods, manufactured goods, processed ore, precious metals from the moon to a specific point on Earth. It will cost less to do that than to ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method, whether that's a boat, an airplane, or a railroad.
The reason is that on the moon, you can take advantage of the low gravity. It's about 1/6 the gravity and the complete lack of an atmosphere, meaning that it's frictionless to move material off of the moon and very low energy to move it off of the moon. You do not need to use a rocket propellant with high energy like we have to do to move things off of the Earth.
In fact, the design for moving material off of the moon is to use what's called a mass driver, which is like a train track, like a rail, like an electric rail. You could put a package on that rail and use electricity to accelerate that package to 100 g force, shoot it back to the Earth, or theoretically shoot it to Mars, and it will go to the exact point on the Earth you want it to go to, re-enters the atmosphere, and lands with a simple parachute where you want it.
The facilities take at least three to five years to fix when they break, which is what just happened in Qatar. That facility got damaged, the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer. So that is the largest producer of urea in the world. That's now going to be incapacitated for 3 to 5 years. And if you want to build a new facility, takes about 7 years.
All the facilities around the world that make urea and ammonia these nitrogen fertilizers typically run 24/7 365 at full capacity. There is no downtime where you can just turn on excess production in the world. The whole world has like less than 30 days of food of calories stored up.
So as these kind of supply chain problems start to percolate there's shock waves that start to get felt around the world. So, it's a pretty serious crisis ahead and it'll take a few months before it'll be fully realized. In the meantime, US farmers are getting their asses handed to them. They can't make money and China is using this as a moment for extraordinary leverage over America and taking advantage of the situation by shutting down exports of their fertilizer and at the same time not buying American production of corn.
Natural gas reservoirs exist around the world and we've been loathed to exploit them or develop them because of the climate change carbon risks and issues. But I think what we're realizing is that those are luxury beliefs to an extent. You can only say let's not exploit carbon resources until you hit a shock wave like this and then people are like wait a second we really do need to have these systems up and running.
Helium goes into MRI machines, helium goes into semiconductor manufacturing, helium goes into mass spec machines that are used in chemical analysis. Helium is a critical input to medical equipment, to manufacturing equipment, and all of a sudden, a third of the world's helium coming out of Qatar is not making it out. And so, we're now going to have a helium supply shock that's going to affect the world.
Looking at this, I think we'll have Trump pivot extremely soon. I've brought this chart up now. This will be the fourth time. You guys remember I brought up this chart with Trump's net approval rating and you look at how this has changed over the three times I brought it up.
Trump's net approval rating now has just plummeted to -17. This is the least popular he's ever been. 51% they take the Senate, 86% they take the House. When you lose Tucker, when you lose Megan Kelly, when you lose Joe Rogan... this is going to be socialism now and AOC is going to win.
The stuff with ICE and, you know, the Epstein files and just going right down the line of unpopular decisions. According to Poly Market, gas is over $4 a gallon. And then, you know, it's easy to mock like we did earlier these like no kings protests, but 8 million people came out for that. That's a large number.
I think when you lose Tucker, when you lose Megan Kelly, when you lose Joe Rogan, you know, and people are looking at who Trump surrounded him with, there's really just two groups. You have these super highly qualified people, Bessant, Lutnik, obviously, David Sacks. You got really highly qualified people, JD. But then he put some people in positions that I think weren't up to the task. Pam Bondi, Christie, I'll put Steven Miller and Cash in that as well.
Trump's going to need to clear house. He's cleared out two or four. I predict he'll clear out the other two and get great leadership in there and turn this presidency around because listen, this is going to be socialism now and AOC is going to win. This is going to cause massive chaos if he doesn't get out of Iran and do it soon.
My only advice on this topic is that the leaders of the Bitcoin ecosystem need to organize themselves and need to make sure that they have an answer to the question of is this stuff quantum resistant? Because if the answer is no, they are a very visible and obvious honeypot.
If a non-state actor gets a hold of quantum technology that can defeat crypto as we know it today, SHA 256, ECDS, like the elliptical curve stuff, a non-state actor's incentive will first be to drain the obvious honeypots and then tell everybody that it's broken so that then everything goes to sh*t, all the prices go to zero, and then they have all the money and then they can buy stuff.
The crypto community, this was much, much earlier, had to deal with this. They had to migrate from different encryption schemes in the early parts of Bitcoin and they were able to self-organize. The difficulty here is you're talking about a big technological lift. You're talking about all the wallets being rearchitected. You're talking about all the transactional flows, all the processing nodes. These are complicated things that need to happen. And I would just tell the crypto community, you have 5 to 7 years to get your stuff in order.
The primary mechanism of modern encryption standards relates to factoring primes of an integer. There was an algorithm by Peter Shor in 1994, and in 2023, Oded Regev from NYU published another paper that reduced the number of quantum operations required to factor a large integer from 28 million down to 500,000.
The market is betting that we are within spitting distance of quantum computers reaching an industrial scale at this moment. So those two things intersect at some moment in the near term where you have algorithms that are low demand, low latency that can crack modern encryption standards and then the computing comes online and someone is going to execute.
My EAs averaged around 188 to 200K a year. Then Jason was like, "Try this thing called Athena." They have these really well-trained folks, they're like geniuses that work in the Philippines. It's $3,000 a month. This is the first time I've had a male assistant. His name is Lei. He's a math grad, math and computer science in the Philippines. And he's excellent.
As an example, like there's an incredible bakery where I live in Dripping Springs, called Abby Jane Bakery. They don't take orders, but every Thursday, my Athena assistant calls at 8 a.m., asks them what's on the menu, cuz they change the menu every week. And then they send me the menu. I order the bakeries. And then he calls an Uber to pick it up and drop it off cuz they're not on Door Dash or Uber.
It's just a stupid example of something that made our lives incredible to have the best bakery in all of Austin in the house every weekend for the girls. I was having to go make that run and I did it every like fourth or fifth week as a treat. Now it's every week.
The other thing we're doing is we had Americans who were researchers sorting through the inbound applications from founders. We were able to put an Athena assistant on that and then they're learning how to use OpenClaw. So the Athena-OpenClaw merger is kind of happening in real time.