📞 JPMorgan Chase & Co Q3 FY2025 컨콜 요약

날짜: 2025년 10월 14일

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1. 실적 요약

| 지표 | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | YoY |

|------|---------|---------|-----|

| 순이익 | $14.4B | $12.9B | +12% |

| EPS | $5.07 | $4.37 | +16% |

| 매출 | $47.1B | $43.3B | +9% |

| ROTCE | 20% | 18% | +200bp |

| 비용 | $24.3B | $22.5B | +8% |

| 신용비용 | $3.4B | $2.4B | +$1.0B |

| CET1 | 14.8% | 15.4% | -60bp |

*Wholesale 약간의 fraud charges (Tricolor $170M)

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2. 핵심 메시지

• 1. 간결한 발표: "Shorter prepared remarks" 실험 - 자료 중복 최소화, Q&A 확대

• 2. RWA 증가로 CET1 하락: Wholesale lending (banking + markets), 실제 사업 성장 반영. Excess capital 활용 중

• 3. NBFI $500B 공약: 10년간 critical industries 지원, $10B equity investment 포함. Excess capital 배치 수단

• 4. Tricolor fraud: $170M charge-off, First Brands는 exposure 없음. "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more" - Jamie

• 5. AI productivity: Tangible outcomes 중시, headcount growth 억제로 간접 측정. 반사적 채용 금지

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3. 사업부별 하이라이트

**CCB**

• 순이익: $5.0B
• 매출: $19.5B (+9%)
• Retail deposit share: #1 (5년 연속), FDIC data 기준 일부 share 손실 (의도적 pricing discipline)
• Sapphire: Best year ever for new accounts
• NCO: slightly better than expected
• Early delinquencies: stable

**CIB**

• 순이익: $6.9B
• 매출: $19.9B (+17%)
• IB fees: +16% (Equity underwriting strong, IPO active)
• Markets: FI +21% (rates, credit, securitized), Equities +33% (prime outperformance)
• Pipeline: Robust, upbeat sentiment
• Credit costs: $696M (일부 downgrades, scenario probability 조정으로 offset)

**AWM**

• 순이익: $1.7B (record)
• 매출: $6.1B (+12%, record)
• Pretax margin: 36%
• Long-term net inflows: $72B (FI, equities)
• AUM: $4.6T (+18%), Client assets: $6.8T (+20%)

**Corporate**

• 순이익: $825M
• 매출: $1.6B

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4. 가이던스

**2025 Q4 & Full Year**

| 항목 | Q4 | Full Year |

|------|-----|-----------|

| NII ex-Markets | $23.5B | implied by Q4 |

| Firm-wide NII | $25B | - |

| 비용 | $24.5B | $95.9B |

| Card NCO | - | ~3.3% (하향, consumer resilience) |

**2026 Preview**

• NII ex-Markets central case: ~$95B (preliminary)
• 비용: Consensus $100B "a little low" (seasonality, labor inflation 고려 필요)

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5. Q&A 핵심

Q1: **Retail deposit 가정?** (John McDonald, Truist)

A (Jeremy):

• 3% Q4 2025, 6% 2026 목표 (Marianne ID)
• Savings rate 낮음, equity flow, yield-seeking 지속
• Net new accounts 강력 (Q3 400K+ checking)
• Inflection pushed out, 장기 궤적은 confident

Q2: **Commercial deposit/loan 가정?** (John McDonald)

A (Jeremy):

• Forward curve: 75bp cuts 2025, 25bp x2 1H 2026
• Card revolve 성장 둔화 (normalization 거의 완료)
• Wholesale deposit 성장 2025 강했으나 2026 muted 예상
• Wholesale loan 성장 moderate

Q3: **Credit 상세 - Tricolor, First Brands?** (Glenn Schorr, Evercore)

A (Jeremy):

• Tricolor: $170M charge-off (wholesale), other exposures 언급 안 함
• First Brands: No exposure
• NBFI lending: 대부분 highly secured/structured
• Private credit actors: sophisticated, 하지만 모든 standards 알 수 없음
• Downturn 시 일부 worse than expected 가능

Q4: **Reserve vs 상업 포트폴리오 mix?** (Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley)

A (Jeremy):

• Wholesale 10년+ NCO ~0% (net) → 정상화 필요
• Direct lending deals: significant day-one reserves
• Mix shift → 약간 higher reserve intensity

Q5: **Excess capital 활용?** (Betsy Graseck)

A (Jeremy/Jamie):

• $500B NBFI + $10B equity = RWA growth로 excess 소비
• Dividend hike는 no guidance
• 유기적 성장 우선

Q6: **Wholesale lending 성장 drivers?** (Ebrahim Poonawalla, BofA)

A (Jeremy):

• Q3 Late-quarter surge: All of the above (private credit, M&A, inventory)

Q7: **AI productivity gains 타이밍?** (Ebrahim Poonawalla)

A (Jeremy):

• Tangible outcomes 중시 vs AI savings 증명 어려움
• Headcount growth 억제 → 간접 측정
• Revenue-related, inflation, investments 여전히 drivers

Q8: **Wholesale credit macro 위험?** (Ebrahim Poonawalla)

A (Jamie):

• Bull market 오래, asset prices 높음
• Downturn 시에만 보이는 문제 존재
• "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more"
• Fraud involved in 일부 cases

Q9: **Stablecoin vs deposit token?** (Steven Alexopoulos, TD Cowen)

A (Jamie): (질문이 섞임, JPM은 Q2 답변 참조)

Q10: **Loan yields +3bp?** (Ken Leon, Autonomous)

A (Jeremy):

• Mix effects (SOFR+20bp ~ 높은 yield 다양)
• Floating rate 하락 예상이나 mix로 상쇄

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6. 투자자 인사이트

**강점**

• 사업 성장: RWA 증가는 excess capital 활용, 실제 lending 성장 반영
• Markets 지속 강세: Equities +33%, prime 우수
• AWM record: 모든 지표 사상 최고
• Consumer resilience: Card NCO 3.3%로 하향, early delinquencies 안정
• IB 모멘텀: Pipeline robust, IPO active

**주의사항**

• NBFI credit risk: Tricolor, First Brands 등 fraud 사례 증가 우려
• Retail deposit 지연: 6% 성장 inflection pushed out
• Wholesale NCO 정상화: 10년+ 0% → 약간 상승 예상
• 비용 압력: 2026 $100B+, labor inflation 3-4%

**모니터링 포인트**

• NBFI credit: Tricolor 후속, downturn 시 추가 문제 가능성
• Retail deposit inflection: When? 2026?
• Card NCO: 3.3% 유지 vs 상승
• Basel III Endgame: Holistic review, GSIB 최우선
• Wholesale credit: Normalization vs deterioration
• AI productivity: Tangible headcount/expense 영향
• 2026 비용 가이던스: Q4 공식 발표